An interesting article in The New York Times, reveals a scenario that perhaps many of us is unknown to the Middle East oil, which reveals an obvious difficulty for the Arab populations increasingly stifled by economic and monetary policies pursued by unscrupulous rulers who demonstrate any disregard for its citizens, and of matching their Western counterparts.
Biopresto
Inflation creates growing unease in the Middle East
AMMAN, Jordan - also because it enriches Arab rulers, the recent boom in oil prices is helping to feed an extraordinary increase in the cost of food and other basic goods that is squeezing the middle class of this region and resulting in strikes, demonstrations and occasional riots from Morocco to the Persian Gulf. Here in Jordan, the cost of maintaining fuel subsidies between rising prices forced the government to remove almost all the subsidies this month, bringing the price of some fuels up to 76 percent overnight. In a devastating domino effect, the cost of basic foods like eggs, potatoes and cucumbers doubled or more.
In Saudi Arabia, where inflation was virtually zero for a decade, recently reached an official level of 6.5 per cent, although unofficial estimates the damage is much higher. Public protests and boycotts have followed, and 19 prominent priests, issued an unusual statement on the Internet in December, which warned of a crisis that could cause "theft, fraud, armed robbery and resentment between rich and poor ".
Inflation has many causes, from increased global demand for raw materials to limit currency to weaken the U.S. dollar. But one cause is the skyrocketing rise in the price of oil itself, which has quadrupled since 2002. All this leads many ordinary people toward poverty even if it stimulates a new wave of economic growth in the Gulf.
"Now we have to choose: either to eat o stare al caldo. Noi non possiamo fare entrambe le cose", ha detto Abdul Rahman Abdul Raheem, che lavora in un negozio di abbigliamento in un centro commerciale ad Amman e che una volta sognava di mandare i propri figli a scuola privata. "Non siamo davvero più borghesia; siamo al livello di povertà".
Alcuni governi hanno cercato di ammorbidire l'impatto dei prezzi elevati aumentando i salari o le sovvenzioni sui prodotti alimentari. La Giordania, per esempio, ha aumentato gli stipendi dei dipendenti del settore pubblico che guadagnavano meno di 300 dinari (423 dollari) al mese di 50 dinari ($ 70). Per coloro che guadagnano più di 300 dinari, l'aumento fu di 45 dinari, o $ 64. Ciò compensa solo una parte degli aumenti dei prezzi, and most of the people working in the private sector do not get no relief.
The fact that inflation is coinciding with the new oil wealth has fed perceptions of corruption and economic injustice, some analysts say.
"About two-thirds of Jordanians now believe there is widespread corruption in the public and private," said Mohammed al-Masri, public relations director of the Center for Strategic Studies at the University of Jordan. "The middle class is becoming less able to afford what we usually do, and more and more suspicious."
In some places the price increases have led to violence. In Yemen, prices for bread and other foods sono quasi raddoppiati negli ultimi quattro mesi, facendo esplodere una stringa di dimostrazioni e scontri in cui almeno una dozzina di persone sono state uccise. In Marocco, 34 persone sono state condannate alla prigione mercoledì per la partecipazione a disordini alimentari sui prezzi, così ha riportato il notiziario di stato marocchino. Poichè strettamente controllati, la Giordania non ha avuto violente dimostrazioni e scioperi.
L'inflazione è stata anche un fattore - spesso trascurato - in alcuni recenti scontri che sono stati considerati come politici o settari. Uno scontro a Beirut tra l'esercito libanese e un gruppo di manifestanti sciiti che ha causato sette morti, è iniziato con dimostrazioni sull'influenza su tagli the increase in bread prices.
In Bahrain and the UAE, inflation is in double digits, and foreign workers, who constitute the vast majority of the workforce went on strike in recent months due to declining purchasing power of money they send home. Workers are paid in currencies that are pegged to the dollar, and the value of their salaries - translated into Indian rupees and other currencies - has dropped significantly.
The heavy dependence on imported Middle Eastern food made him particularly vulnerable to global price increases in recent years, said George T. Abed, the former governor of the Palestinian Monetary Authority a director at the Institute of International Finance, an organization based in Washington.
Corruption, inefficiency and monopolistic economies worsen the impact, as government officials or business owners artificially inflate prices or refuse untaglio increases.
"For many commodities, we do not have the free-market prices, we have monopoly prices," said Samer Tawil, a former minister of national economy in Jordan. "Oil, cement, rice, meat, sugar: these are all imported almost exclusively by one importer each time. Corruption is one thing when it concerns the construction of a road, but when you touch my food that is different."
In oil-producing Gulf countries, governments, which are well supplied with petrol money can soften the blow by spending more. The United Arab Emirates increased the salaries of public sector employees by 70 percent this month, Oman will have increased by 43 percent. Saudi Arabia has also increased its wages and increased subsidies on some foods. Bahrain has established a fund of $ 100 million this year to be distributed to those most affected by higher prices. But all these costs of government have the unfortunate side effect of worsening inflation, economists say.
In Syria, where oil production is running out, prices have also increased dramatically. Although he has started to liberalize its rigid socialist economy, the government has repeatedly delayed plans to eliminate subsidies that keep prices artificially low for its citizens, fearing domestic reprisals.
Even so, inflation of recent months has weighed on all except on the wealthy. Fakarava
Thou al-Hammad, an employee of the office's contracts Syrian state oil company, has a law degree and earns less than 15,000 Syrian pounds, or $ 293 per month, twice the national average wage. His salary was once more than enough, and until recently he sent half of the salary to his parents.
But rising prices ha cambiato tutto questo, egli ha detto. Ora ha preso un secondo lavoro insegnando arabo nei fine settimana per il sostentamento di sua moglie e del bambino. Impossibilitato per l'acquisto di un auto, prende autobus pubblici dal suo bilocale appena fuori Damasco per andare al lavoro. Egli può permettersi la migliore qualità di pannolini per suo figlio solo per la notte e passa a quelli più economici durante il giorno. Non è più in grado di inviare qualcosa ai suoi genitori.
"Devo vivere giorno per giorno", ha detto. "Non posso calcolare per tutto perché, se mio figlio si ammala, dovrei spendere molto di ciò che guadagno per le medicine per lui."
Allo stesso tempo, una nuova classe di imprenditori, la maggior parte di their ties with the government, has built gaudy mansions and helped transform Damascus, the Syrian capital, with new restaurants and trendy cafes. This has helped fuel a perception of corruption and unfairness, analysts say. Wednesday, the government newspaper Al Thawra published a poll that found that 450 of 452 Syrians believed that their state institutions have been subject to corruption.
"Many people believe that most of the government's economic policies are adopted to meet the interests of the newly emerging Syrian aristocracy, while disregarding the interests of poor and lower middle class," said Marwan al-Kabalan, a professor of Political Science the University of Damascus.
The same attitudes are visible in Jordan. Even before the subsidies on fuel were removed this month, inflation had badly eroded the average income of households in the last five years, said Mr. Tawil, the former minister of the economy. Although the official rate of 'inflation for 2007 was 5.4 percent, government studies have shown that the average incomes of households spent more for food and consuming less, he added. Last year a survey by the Economist Intelligence Unit found that Amman was found the most expensive Arab capital for the cost of living.
Mr. Abdul Raheem, an official di un negozio di abbigliamento ad Amman, ha detto, "Nessuno può essere al governo ora ed essere pulito."
Intanto, la sua vita è stata trasformata, ha detto Abdul Raheem. Ha spuntato una lista dii prezzi: le patate sono balzate a circa 76 centesimi alla libbra da 32 centesimi. Un cartone di 30 uova è arrivato a circa $ 4,25 da appena al di sopra di $ 2; i cetrioli sono saliti a 58 centesimi alla libbra da circa 22. Tutto questo in poche settimane.
"Queste sono sempre state le cose di base", ha detto. "Ora sono dei lussi".
Con uno stipendio equivalente a $ 423 ed un affitto $ 176 , il pagamento per i prodotti alimentari ed il carburante esaurisce il suo reddito, ha detto. "Ma stiamo molto meglio di altri", ha added. "We are in the media."
Biopresto
translation from an article in The New York Times 02/25/2008
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